Farai Chideya, FiveThirtyEight – October 4, 2016
Suburban women are a crucial demographic group in any presidential election, but they have been particularly sought after by Democrats this yearwho hope to capitalize on Trump’s unpopularity among women, especially those with a college education. According to an NBC News/Wall Street Journal national poll (taken in mid-September, before the first debate), Hillary Clinton is winning a plurality of suburban women, 43 percent to Trump’s 34 percent. While Mitt Romney was viewed negatively by 42 percent of suburban women in 2012, Trump is seen in a negative light by 60 percent to 70 percent of suburban women this year.
Philip Rucker, Washington Post – October 1, 2016
With just five weeks of campaigning left, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are scrambling to win over female voters in America’s suburbs as well-educated white women have emerged as perhaps the presidential campaign’s most pivotal swing voting group.
Gary Langer, ABC News – September 25, 2016
The race between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump has narrowed to essentially a dead heat nationally in the latest ABC News/Washington Post poll, raising the stakes dramatically for the first presidential debate Monday night.
Andrew McGill, The Atlantic – September 14, 2016
Remember “Soccer Moms?” They were all the rage in 1996, representing the slender slice of the suburban electorate Bill Clinton supposedly needed to win over to keep the presidency. Like the Macarena, the Soccer Mom turns 20 this year, but she doesn’t have the clout she once did. Now popular is the “White Working Class,” a catch-all label for a group of voters whose fears and anxieties have defined the 2016 campaign, or at least dominated media coverage.
Tim Funk, Charlotte Observer – September 4, 2016
If Republican Trump expects to carry swing states such as North Carolina, he’ll need voters like Roberts – white suburban women who have a history of voting for GOP candidates. Four years ago, then-Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won the national white female vote by 14 points, according to exit polls. A Quinnipiac University poll released last month found that Clinton was ahead, 49 percent to 46 percent, with white women likely to vote.
Philip Bump, Washington Post – August 29, 2016
The divergence between white men without degrees and white women with degrees is more obvious here, plotting three dimensions of information: percent of the electorate (circle size) versus year of election and margin of support. Note how big the red and purple outlined circles were in 1980 relative to 2012. That’s the decline in the density of the white vote without degrees.
Bob Jordan, Asbury Park News – August 23, 2016
Monmouth University’s polling on the presidential race has found Donald Trump doing better with men than women in most states. But in Missouri, his gender gap is reversed. Monmouth’s poll of Missouri voters likely to cast ballots in November’s presidential election shows the Republican presidential nominee holding a 1-point lead over Democrat Hillary Clinton. Surprisingly, Trump is currently doing better among white women (54% to 36%) in Missouri than he is among white men (45% to 37%).
Philip Bump, Washington Post – August 18, 2016
White Republican women with college degrees view Trump much more negatively than do white men without. In our most recent poll, a third of white Republican women with degrees viewed Trump negatively compared with 18 percent of men without degrees. Nearly 1 in 5 Republican women with degrees view Trump strongly negatively.
Gregory Holyk, ABC News – August 16, 2016
A potentially record-breaking gap in preference between two groups — college-educated white women for Hillary Clinton and non-college-educated white men for Donald Trump — is one of the most striking features of in the 2016 presidential race.
William H. Frey, Brookings Institution – August 16, 2016
Much has been written about white working-class men this political cycle because they represent the voting base on which Republican candidate Donald Trump largely depends. Yet recent polling suggests that another demographic segment – white college-educated women – could be his Achilles heel. I have calculated just how many votes it would cost him if white college-educated women vote the way they have stated they will in recent polls. If the polls are accurate, even a supersized turnout of working-class white men would not be nearly enough for Trump to win the election.