Former President Bill Clinton was clearly still working through his post-election feelings when he told a local New York reporter that President-elect Donald Trump “doesn’t know much,” but “one thing he does know is how to get angry, white men to vote for him.”
History could be made in next week’s election — not only in the possibility of electing the first female president, but in the possibility of the largest gender voting gap in the modern era. Women have voted far more heavily Democratic than men in presidential elections since 1996, and the biggest gap thus far has been in 2000, when women preferred Al Gore over George W. Bush by 10 points, while men chose Bush over Gore by 11 points — a 21-point total gap. This year’s gender gap could be even wider, if recent polls are any guide.
The role of sex and gender in this election extends beyond Donald Trump’s personal history and the media’s excessive scrutiny of Hillary Clinton’s voice. Trump’s ethno-nationalist populism reflects anxieties over the changing role of women and men in society against a backdrop of harrowing economic crisis and demographic change that will soon make the United States a majority-minority country.
Jared Yates Sexton, New York Times – October 13, 2016
Donald J. Trump, especially the Donald J. Trump we heard last week on tape, is nothing new to me. His macho-isms, his penchant for dividing the world into losers and winners, his lack of empathy for anyone but himself — it all reminds me of home, and the sense I had, even as a boy, of a system of privilege that has ailed this country since its beginnings, but now seems to be, and sees itself, fading away.
A key for Trump is tenacious support among men, whose backing for him increased after Clinton’s health became an issue in early September, according to the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll of the race.
Let’s Join Megyn Kelly and Kellyanne Conway in Talking About the Gender Dynamics of 2016!
After the vice-presidential debate Tuesday, Fox News’s Megyn Kelly sat down with Kellyanne Conway, perhaps alerted to the presence of Donald Trump’s campaign manager thanks to the candidate’s tweet. Toward the end of the segment, Conway noted that Hillary Clinton is barely earning half of the vote from women.
“But why do people feel the need to do this hyper-vetting of Hillary Clinton?” said Mr. Methe, who has offered to volunteer for the Clinton campaign. “Is it because she is a Clinton, because she is attached to the Clinton dynasty, or is it simply because she is a woman? “It almost seems like it’s this clash of man versus woman. If you are a man and believe in red-blooded American things, then you vote for Trump. It seems like there is a real firm dividing line between one and the other.”
Howard Rosenthal, Washington Post – September 8, 2016
The rise of Donald Trump has put the focus on one particular demographic: men. In a provocative post entitled “What the hell is going on?” the economist Tyler Cowen argued, “The contemporary world is not very well built for a large chunk of males.” Understanding the views of men, and particularly Trump’s base of white men, is key.
For this group of mostly white, working-class men, the last two decades have brought much loss. In this election – with the victory of the populist Donald Trump as the Republican Party nominee and the strong run by the populist Bernie Sanders for the Democratic Party crown – many say they feel they’re finally being heard again.
The divergence between white men without degrees and white women with degrees is more obvious here, plotting three dimensions of information: percent of the electorate (circle size) versus year of election and margin of support. Note how big the red and purple outlined circles were in 1980 relative to 2012. That’s the decline in the density of the white vote without degrees.