Category: Analysis

Trump’s Gender Miscalculations

On Tuesday night, Donald Trump told his supporters and the press: “Frankly, if Hillary Clinton were a man, I don’t think she’d get 5 percent of the vote.” There’s no basis for that calculation, of course. It assumes that nearly 55 percent of the Democratic primary electorate voted for Clinton based on gender alone.[1] More specifically, it would mean that about 75 percent of Black voters, 45 percent of unmarried voters, and one of five Democratic voters under 30 chose Clinton on the sole basis of her biology.

Read More

How many women’s votes does Bernie Sanders need to win the nomination? (UPDATED 5.2.16)

After 38 Democratic Party primaries and caucuses, Hillary Clinton is leading the race for pledged delegates by just under 250, and outpacing Bernie Sanders among superdelegates by more than a 13:1 ratio. The electoral math appears increasingly challenging for a Sanders nomination, but the Sanders campaign has remained steadfast in its willingness to take on this challenge. As pundits, practitioners, and statisticians calculate how Sanders could forge a path to victory, it is worth asking what role women voters might play in determining Sanders’ fate.

Read More

Would Republican Presidential Candidate Senator Ted Cruz Select Carly Fiorina as his Running Mate?

As Republican presidential candidate Senator Ted Cruz works to win enough delegates to prevent fellow candidate Donald Trump from amassing the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the 2016 Republican nomination, some are looking ahead to the question of who Cruz might select as his running mate and naming Carly Fiorina as their preferred choice for VP. The former presidential candidate and Hewlett Packard CEO, who dropped out of the presidential race following the New Hampshire primary, endorsed Cruz in March ahead of the Florida primary. Since then, she has campaigned with Senator Cruz’s wife, Heidi, in Wisconsin, where Cruz won the primary over Trump with 48 percent of the vote and received 36 of the 42 Republican delegates up for grabs. Fiorina has not ruled out being named as Cruz’s pick for vice president and has embraced her role as a surrogate for Cruz, attacking fellow Republican candidate Donald Trump as well as presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Given that the 2016 Republican nomination looks increasingly likely to be resolved in a contested convention, what benefit might Ted Cruz gain from naming Fiorina as his running mate, were he to become the nominee?

Read More

Lesson 5: Women voters are not a monolithic bloc. (Neither are men.)

One year ago, the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation launched Presidential Gender Watch 2016, a nonpartisan project to track, analyze, and illuminate gender dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. The goal of the project was – and remains – to lend expert analysis to the dialogue around gender throughout the election season. With just over 200 days until Election Day, it’s worth taking stock of what we’ve been up to. Over the next week, we will post 5 key lessons learned. Today, we review lesson number five (our final lesson): Women voters are not a monolithic bloc. Neither are men.  (See hyperlinks for full analyses written over the past year.)

Read More

Elevating the Gender Dialogue in the Presidential Race: How’s it Going?

 

One year ago, the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation launched Presidential Gender Watch 2016, a nonpartisan project to track, analyze, and illuminate gender dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. The goal of the project was – and remains – to lend expert analysis to the dialogue around gender throughout the election season. While that includes recognition of the historic nature of having women competing for both major party nominations for president, it goes well beyond talking about the women in the race. Importantly, it means reminding all election observers – media, scholars, practitioners, and voters alike – that gender does not mean women and that gender dynamics are not limited to instances of sexism, whether explicit or implicit. A truer gender dialogue means recognizing the myriad and complex ways in which gender shapes candidate behavior, voter engagement and evaluations, and media coverage and commentary.

Read More

Lesson 4: Win or lose, this year’s women candidates made history in multiple ways…and that’s worth celebrating.

One year ago, the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation launched Presidential Gender Watch 2016, a nonpartisan project to track, analyze, and illuminate gender dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. The goal of the project was – and remains – to lend expert analysis to the dialogue around gender throughout the election season. With just over 200 days until Election Day, it’s worth taking stock of what we’ve been up to. Over the next week, we will post 5 key lessons learned. Today, we review lesson number four: Win or lose, this year’s women candidates made history in multiple ways…and that’s worth celebrating.  (See hyperlinks for full analyses written over the past year.)

Read More

Lesson 3: Presidential politics are not free of gender bias, and this election provides examples of both persistence and progress.

One year ago, the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation launched Presidential Gender Watch 2016, a nonpartisan project to track, analyze, and illuminate gender dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. The goal of the project was – and remains – to lend expert analysis to the dialogue around gender throughout the election season. With just over 200 days until Election Day, it’s worth taking stock of what we’ve been up to. Over the next week, we will post 5 key lessons learned. Today, we review lesson number three: Presidential politics are not free of gender bias, and this election provides examples of both persistence and progress.  (See hyperlinks for full analyses written over the past year.)

Read More

Lesson 2: Every presidential candidate – man or woman – faces gendered expectations. But there are some significant differences between men and women who run.

One year ago, the Center for American Women and Politics at Rutgers University and the Barbara Lee Family Foundation launched Presidential Gender Watch 2016, a nonpartisan project to track, analyze, and illuminate gender dynamics in the 2016 presidential election. The goal of the project was – and remains – to lend expert analysis to the dialogue around gender throughout the election season. With just over 200 days until Election Day, it’s worth taking stock of what we’ve been up to. Over the next week, we will post 5 key lessons learned. Today, we review lesson number one: Every presidential candidate – man or woman – faces gendered expectations. But there are some significant differences between men and women who run. (See hyperlinks for full analyses written over the past year.)

Read More